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WALL STREET HAS IT WRONG: THE TRUE IMPACT OF THE MONEY SUPPLY ON PRICE INDEXES

机译:华尔街很糟糕:货币供应对价格指数的真实影响

摘要

The purpose of this particular paper is to analyze the impact of the money supply on consumer price indexes within the U.S. The intent of this paper is to probe the impact of the M1 and M2 money supplies on consumer and producer prices indexes by estimating a multitude of equations taking core CPI, general CPI, core PPI, commodity PPI, and personal consumption expenditures as a measure of inflation, with M1, and M2 money supply, as explanatory variables. For this analysis, the OLS technique is used to cover time series data from 1980-81 to 2009-10. The results for general CPI, core CPI, core PPI, and PCE, show a positive correlation with the M1 money supply. Commodity PPI however, is negatively correlated with M1. General CPI, core PPI, commodity PPI, and the PCE are positively correlated with M2. Results show that only the cores CPI, general CPI, are positively correlated with the M3 money supply. It may be concluded that the supply of money M1 and M2 affect the core and general price indices in the same way. The central question that this paper attempts to answer is: Do the domestic money supplies have the same effect on both general pricing indexes as they do on the core pricing indexes? The most important revelation within this project is that the M1 money supply affects general CPI stronger than the core CPI, thus contradicting the analysis posited by the equity research analysts on Wall Street.
机译:本文的目的是分析货币供应量对美国消费者价格指数的影响。本文的目的是通过估计大量的M1和M2货币供应量对消费者和生产者价格指数的影响。以核心CPI,一般CPI,核心PPI,商品PPI和个人消费支出作为通货膨胀的度量的方程式,以M1和M2货币供应量为解释变量。对于此分析,OLS技术用于覆盖1980-81年至2009-10年的时间序列数据。总体CPI,核心CPI,核心PPI和PCE的结果显示与M1货币供应量呈正相关。但是,商品PPI与M1呈负相关。总体CPI,核心PPI,商品PPI和PCE与M2正相关。结果表明,只有核心CPI,一般CPI与M3货币供应量呈正相关。可以得出结论,货币供应量M1和M2以相同的方式影响核心价格指数和一般价格指数。本文试图回答的中心问题是:国​​内货币供应量对两个通用定价指数的影响是否与对核心定价指数的影响相同?该项目中最重要的启示是,M1货币供应对总体CPI的影响要强于核心CPI,因此与华尔街证券研究分析师的分析相矛盾。

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    Adesida Bamidele O;

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  • 年度 2011
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