Specifically, we explore (a) the reliability of the index at different levels of probability of exceedance of maximum seasonal rainfall; (b) the effect of sampling uncertainties and the strength of the proxyu27s association to local outcome, (c) the potential for clustering of payoffs; (d) the potential that the index could be predicted with some lead time prior to the flood season; and (e) evidence for climate change or non-stationarity in the flood exceedance probability from the long ENSO record.
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