Nowadays deterministic building simulation models are commonly used in building design. However, most of the parameters involved are stochastic variables and as a consequence, a probabilistic approach would give more information on the spread of the results. In the framework of IEA ECBCS Annex 55, it is the aim to develop a method to estimate the balance between energy savings and risks, such as mould growth, algae growth and low indoor air quality when retrofitting existing dwellings. Such a method, based on a probabilistic approach, would make it possible to choose the solution with the best balance between large energy savings and low risks. This paper illustrates a probabilistic approach for an old cavity wall which is retrofitted with post-injected insulation. It shows how a decision tool can be constructed and how it can be used in a retrofitting problem. With the developed methodology it can be decided which insulation material to choose to reduce the heat loss and to minimise the risk of mould growth. The aim of the paper is to illustrate the methodology and possibilities of a probabilistic approach.
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