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Singularity-sensitive gauge-based radar rainfall adjustment methods for urban hydrological applications

机译:基于奇异性规的雷达降水量调节方法在城市水文中的应用

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摘要

Gauge-based radar rainfall adjustment techniques have been widely used to improve the applicability of radar rainfall estimates to large-scale hydrological modelling. However, their use for urban hydrological applications is limited as they were mostly developed based upon Gaussian approximations and therefore tend to smooth o so-called “singularities” (features of a non-Gaussian field) that can be observed in the fine-scale rainfall structure. Overlooking the singularities could be critical, given that their distribution is highly consistent with that of local extreme magnitudes. This deficiency may cause large errors in the subsequent urban hydrological modelling. To address this limitation and improve the applicability of adjustment techniques at urban scales, a method is proposed herein which incorporates a local singularity analysis into existing adjustment techniques and allows the preservation of the singularity structures throughout the adjustment process. In this paper the proposed singularity analysis is incorporated into the Bayesian merging technique and the performance of the result ing singularity-sensitive method is compared with that of the original Bayesian (non singularity-sensitive) technique and the commonly-used mean field bias adjustment. This test is conducted using as case study four storm events observed in the Portobello catchment (53 km2) (Edinburgh, UK) during 2011 and for which radar estimates, dense rain gauge and sewer flow records, as well as a recently-calibrated urban drainage model were available. The results suggest that, in general, the proposed singularitysensitive method can eectively preserve the non-normality in local rainfall structure, while retaining the ability of the original adjustment techniques to generate nearly unbiased estimates. Moreover, the ability of the singularity-sensitive technique to preserve the non-normality in rainfall estimates often leads to better reproduction of the urban drainage system’s dynamics, particularly of peak runo flows.
机译:基于仪表的雷达降雨量调整技术已被广泛用于提高雷达降雨量估计值在大规模水文建模中的适用性。但是,它们在城市水文应用中的使用受到限制,因为它们主要是基于高斯近似方法开发的,因此倾向于平滑可以在精细降雨中观察到的所谓的“奇异性”(非高斯场的特征)。结构体。鉴于奇异点的分布与局部极端幅度的分布高度一致,因此忽略奇点可能至关重要。这种缺陷可能会在随后的城市水文建模中引起较大的误差。为了解决该限制并提高调整技术在城市规模上的适用性,本文提出一种方法,该方法将局部奇异性分析合并到现有的调整技术中,并允许在整个调整过程中保留奇异性结构。本文将提出的奇异性分析纳入贝叶斯合并技术,并将结果奇异性敏感方法的性能与原始贝叶斯(非奇异性敏感)技术和常用的平均场偏差调整方法的性能进行比较。这项测试的案例研究是在2011年期间在Portobello流域(53 km2)(英国爱丁堡)观察到的四个暴风雨事件中进行的,其中雷达估计,密集雨量计和下水道流量记录以及最近校准的城市排水系统模型可用。结果表明,总体而言,所提出的奇异敏感性方法可以有效地保留局部降雨结构的非正态性,同时保留原始调整技术生成几乎无偏估计的能力。此外,奇异敏感技术能够保持降雨估计中的非正常性,通常可以更好地再现城市排水系统的动力学,尤其是峰值雨水流量。

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