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Risk sharing and internal migration

机译:风险分担和内部迁移

摘要

Over the past two decades, more than half the population in our sample of rural Tanzanians has migrated out of their home-communities. We hypothesize that this powerful current of internal migrants is changing the nature of traditional institutions such as informal risk sharing. Mass internal migration has created geographically disperse networks, on which we collected detailed panel data. By quantifying how shocks and consumption co-vary across linked households we show that, while both migrants and stayers insure negative shocks to stayers, there is no one in the network who insures the migrants’ negative shocks. While migrants do share some of their positive shocks, they ultimately end up nearly twice as rich as those at home by 2010, despite practically identical baseline positions in the early nineties prior to migration. Taken together, these findings point to migration as a risky, but profitable endeavour, for which the migrant will bear the risk and also reap most of the benefit. We interpret these results within the existing literature on risk-sharing and on the disincentive effects of redistributive norms.
机译:在过去的二十年中,在我们的坦桑尼亚农村人口样本中,有超过一半的人口移出了自己的家庭社区。我们假设内部移民的这种强大力量正在改变传统机构的性质,例如非正式风险分担。大规模内部迁移已创建了地理位置分散的网络,我们在该网络上收集了详细的面板数据。通过量化联系家庭之间的冲击和消费如何变化,我们发现,尽管移民和居留者都可以确保对居所的负面冲击,但是网络中没有人可以确保移民的居所受到负面冲击。尽管移民确实也分享了一些积极的冲击,但他们最终最终在2010年的财富几乎是家中富人的两倍,尽管移民之前的90年代初的基准职位实际上是相同的。综上所述,这些发现表明移民是一种冒险,但却是有利可图的努力,为此,移民将承担风险,并从中获得大部分利益。我们在有关风险分担和再分配规范的抑制作用的现有文献中解释了这些结果。

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