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Tuning G-ensemble to improve forecast skill in numerical weather prediction models

机译:调整G合奏以提高数值天气预报模型中的预报技巧

摘要

The process of weather forecasting produced by numerical weather prediction (NWP) models is complex and not always accurate. Moreover, it is generally defined by its very nature as a process that has to deal with uncertainties. In previous works, a new weather prediction scheme, Genetic Ensemble (G-Ensemble), was presented, which uses evolutionary computing methods. Particularly, it uses Genetic Algorithms (GA) in order to find the most timely 'optimal' values of model closure parameters that appear in physical parametrization schemes, which are coupled with NWP models. The presented scheme showed significant improvement of weather prediction quality and, moreover, the waiting time for an enhanced weather prediction result was reduced by executing a parallel G-Ensemble scheme over HPC platforms. In this work, however, we test the same scheme with different GA configurations regarding its Crossover type and ratio, and by variating its initial population size in order to get better predictions. The main concern behind this work is to provide a more detailed study on how the GA used in G-Ensemble scheme could be tuned depending on the available computational resources in operational scenarios. Finally, experimental results are discussed of a weather prediction case using historical data of a well known weather catastrophe: Hurricane Katrina that occurred in 2005 in the Gulf of Mexico. Obtained results provide significant enhancement in weather prediction.
机译:由数字天气预报(NWP)模型产生的天气预报过程非常复杂,而且并不总是准确的。此外,通常将其定义为必须处理不确定性的过程。在以前的工作中,提出了一种新的天气预报计划,即遗传合奏(G-Ensemble),它使用了进化计算方法。特别是,它使用遗传算法(GA)来查找物理参数化方案中出现的与NWP模型耦合的模型闭合参数的最及时“最佳”值。所提出的方案显示出天气预报质量的显着提高,此外,通过在HPC平台上执行并行G-Ensemble方案,减少了天气预报得到增强的等待时间。但是,在这项工作中,我们针对其交叉类型和比率以及通过改变其初始种群数量来测试具有不同GA配置的相同方案,以获得更好的预测。这项工作的主要关注点是提供更详细的研究,以研究如何根据运行方案中的可用计算资源来调整G-Ensemble方案中使用的GA。最后,使用一个众所周知的天气灾难的历史数据讨论了天气预报案例的实验结果:2005年发生在墨西哥湾的卡特里娜飓风。获得的结果大大增强了天气预报。

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