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Drainage inlets efficiency and its impact on pluvial flooding hazardudevaluation uncertainty

机译:排水进水口效率及其对小洪灾的影响 ud评价不确定性

摘要

Flooding events in urban areas occur quite frequently as a consequence of rain events of lower intensity thanudthe design one, even in case of correct network dimensioning. Inlets are in those cases the critical nodes, andudefficient drainage is only ensured when care is taken on their appropriate design and positioning within the pluvialudflood-prone areas. Classical approach for design and position of these hydraulic structures can result in high leveludof uncertainty in defining properly risk levels in urban areas. Further, evaluation of flood hazard in urban areasudis made even more difficult if one considers that pluvial flooding can be caused by storm events characterisedudby a low return times and they may involve even small portions of the urban areas. This contribution is focusedudon the derivation of flood hazard maps in a probabilistic framework to overcome the classical problem of singleuddeterministic prediction of flood extent for the design event and to introduce the concept of the likelihood ofudflooding at a given point as the sum of input data and parameterization uncertainty.udIn particular, a stochastic generation of inlet efficiency scenarios with varying their position in pluvial flood-proneudareas has been performed and rainfall forcing modelled using a bivariate approach based on copulas.udThis methodological approach has been implemented in a selected study area in the town of Genoa. At this aim,udin October-December 2009, a survey was carried out in order to investigate the operational conditions of the inletsudthroughout the study area. Based on the observed conditions the frequency distribution functions of inlet efficiencyudare determined according to the different sub-areas with specific anthropogenic characteristics.
机译:即使在网络尺寸正确的情况下,由于降雨强度低于设计值,城市地区的洪水事件也经常发生。在这些情况下,进水口是关键节点,只有在注意多雨多水泛滥地区内的适当设计和位置时,才能确保排水效率高。这些水工结构的设计和定位的经典方法可能会导致在确定城市地区的适当风险水平时存在很高的不确定性。此外,如果人们认为小雨洪水可能是由暴雨事件造成的,返回时间很短,并且可能涉及小部分城市地区,那么对城市洪水的危害评估就更加困难。该贡献集中于在概率框架中推导洪水灾害图,以克服针对设计事件的洪水泛滥的单一确定性预测的经典问题,并在给定点引入洪水泛滥可能性的概念作为输入数据总和参数化不确定性的总和。 ud特别是,随机生成了入口效率情景,这些情景在易发生洪灾的洪水中发生了变化,并使用了基于copulas的双变量方法对降雨强迫进行了建模。已在热那亚镇的选定研究区域实施。为此,于2009年10月至12月12日进行了一项调查,以调查整个研究区域的进水口的运行状况。根据观察到的条件,根据具有特定人为特征的不同子区域确定进气效率的频率分布函数。

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