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Global sensitivity analysis for urban water quality modelling: Terminology, convergence and comparison of different methods

机译:城市水质建模的全球敏感性分析:术语,不同方法的收敛和比较

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摘要

Sensitivity analysis represents an important step in improving the understanding and use of environmental models. Indeed, by means of global sensitivity analysis (GSA), modellers may identify both important (factor prioritisation) and non-influential (factor fixing) model factors. No general rule has yet been defined for verifying the convergence of the GSA methods. In order to fill this gap this paper presents a convergence analysis of three widely used GSA methods (SRC, Extended FAST and Morris screening) for an urban drainage stormwater quality-quantity model. After the convergence was achieved the results of each method were compared. In particular, a discussion on peculiarities, applicability, and reliability of the three methods is presented. Moreover, a graphical Venn diagram based classification scheme and a precise terminology for better identifying important, interacting and non-influential factors for each method is proposed. In terms of convergence, it was shown that sensitivity indices related to factors of the quantity model achieve convergence faster. Results for the Morris screening method deviated considerably from the other methods. Factors related to the quality model require a much higher number of simulations than the number suggested in literature for achieving convergence with this method. In fact, the results have shown that the term "screening" is improperly used as the method may exclude important factors from further analysis. Moreover, for the presented application the convergence analysis shows more stable sensitivity coefficients for the Extended-FAST method compared to SRC and Morris screening. Substantial agreement in terms of factor fixing was found between the Morris screening and Extended FAST methods. In general, the water quality related factors exhibited more important interactions than factors related to water quantity. Furthermore, in contrast to water quantity model outputs, water quality model outputs were found to be characterised by high non-linearity.
机译:敏感性分析是改善对环境模型的理解和使用的重要一步。确实,通过全局敏感性分析(GSA),建模者可以识别重要的(因素优先排序)和非影响的(因素固定)模型因素。尚未为验证GSA方法的收敛性定义任何通用规则。为了填补这一空白,本文提出了三种广泛用于城市排水雨水质量数量模型的GSA方法(SRC,扩展FAST和Morris筛选)的收敛性分析。收敛后,比较每种方法的结果。尤其是,对这三种方法的特性,适用性和可靠性进行了讨论。此外,提出了基于图形维恩图的分类方案和精确术语,以更好地识别每种方法的重要,相互作用和非影响因素。从收敛性来看,表明与数量模型因素相关的敏感度指标可以更快地收敛。 Morris筛选方法的结果与其他方法有很大的出入。与质量模型相关的因素需要比文献中建议的数量多得多的仿真次数,以实现该方法的收敛。实际上,结果表明,不适当使用术语“筛选”,因为该方法可能会从进一步分析中排除重要因素。此外,对于本申请,与SRC和Morris筛选相比,对Extended-FAST方法的收敛性分析显示出更稳定的灵敏度系数。在因子筛选方面,Morris筛查法和Extended FAST方法之间达成了基本一致。通常,与水质有关的因素比与水量有关的因素表现出更重要的相互作用。此外,与水量模型输出相反,发现水质模型输出具有高非线性特征。

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