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Effect of availability on multi-period planning of subsea oil and gas production systems

机译:可用性对海底油气生产系统的多期计划的影响

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摘要

Natural gas and petroleum are non-renewable and scarce energy sources.Although, it is well known that hydrocarbon reserves are depleting through the years, oiland gas remain the principal source of energy upon which our society is stronglydependent. Hence, optimization and accurate planning of hydrocarbon production arethe main keys to making it safer, more efficient, and cheaper. One of the toolscommonly used to evaluate the optimization of oil/gas production system is the processsimulation modeling.A hydrocarbon production system typically consists of at least one undergroundreservoir where several wells have been drilled into the hydrocarbon-bearing rock toform a fixed topology network. Wells are interconnected with manifolds to transport thegas or oil to a storage or sale location. The process simulation consists of calculating thetotal hydrocarbon production for the given production system. The pressure in thewellbore is the main variable in determining the hydrocarbon production process. Whenoil/gas is produced, the pressure decreases until production cannot be sustained. If thewell is shut down, the pressure at the wellbore increases because of the natural gas flowcoming from the reservoir. In addition, artificial lift techniques, such as water injection,gas lift and pump systems can be incorporated into the simulation program. The oil/gasproduction has been also modeled as a multi-period optimization case to incorporate thepossibility of different demands, cost and overall time behavior. The current field optimization approaches take in account the availability in ageneral way, adding to the planning a lot of uncertainty. The proposed study includes asuitable analysis of the likelihood of equipment failure, which will predict theavailability of the equipment in a certain period of time to perform a more accurateplanning.In this work, we have integrated the availability analysis to the model describedabove. The availability of a system is analyzed by Monte Carlo simulation, whichinvolves the modeling of the probabilities of failure, the type of failure, the time to repairassociated with each failure, and time of occurrence for a field system.The availability model performed reduces significantly the uncertainties on amulti-period planning production of either oil or gas, predicting the probability of failureand the downtime related to the hydrocarbon production through its lifetime.In this study, the unavailability of the equipment was quantified, reporting asubsea equipment downtime of approximately 7%. As a result, new production planningis accomplished in the effective work period, which will be beneficial in financial riskdecisions such as a government?s deliverability contracts.
机译:天然气和石油是不可再生和稀缺的能源。尽管众所周知,多年来碳氢化合物的储量正在消耗,但石油和天然气仍然是我们社会赖以生存的主要能源。因此,烃生产的优化和准确计划是使其更安全,更有效和更便宜的主要关键。通常用于评估油气生产系统优化的工具之一是过程模拟。油气生产系统通常由至少一个地下储层组成,在该储层中已在含烃岩石中钻了几口井以形成固定的拓扑网络。井与歧管互连,将天然气或石油输送到存储或销售地点。过程模拟包括计算给定生产系统的总烃产量。井筒中的压力是确定烃类生产过程的主要变量。当产生石油/天然气时,压力降低,直到无法持续生产为止。如果关闭井,则由于来自储层的天然气流动,井眼处的压力增加。此外,可以将人工举升技术(例如注水,气举和泵系统)纳入模拟程序。石油/天然气生产也已建模为一个多周期优化案例,以结合不同需求,成本和总体时间行为的可能性。当前的现场优化方法通常考虑可用性,这给规划增加了很多不确定性。拟议的研究包括对设备故障可能性的适当分析,这将预测在一定时间内设备的可用性以执行更准确的计划。在这项工作中,我们将可用性分析集成到上述模型中。系统的可用性通过蒙特卡洛(Monte Carlo)仿真进行分析,该模型涉及故障概率,故障类型,与每个故障相关的维修时间以及现场系统发生时间的建模。执行的可用性模型显着减少了多期计划生产石油或天然气的不确定性,可预测整个生命周期内与碳氢化合物生产相关的故障概率和停机时间。在本研究中,对设备的不可用性进行了量化,报告的海底设备停机时间约为7%。结果,在有效的工作期内完成了新的生产计划,这将有利于财务风险决策,例如政府的可交付性合同。

著录项

  • 作者

    Ruiz Vasquez Karla Liliana;

  • 作者单位
  • 年度 2009
  • 总页数
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 en_US
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