Forecasting the financial trends facing intercollegiate athletic programs of public institutions as identified by athletic directors of the ACC, Big 12 and SEC Conferences

摘要

The purpose of this research was to provide a forecast of financial trends inmajor intercollegiate athletics over the next 15 years for strategic planning purposes.This study focused specifically on the trends of revenue generation and cost containmentin the athletic departments of the public institutions in the ACC, Big 12 and SECConferences. Most of these large programs are expected to externally produce amajority of their fiscal resources and compete at a high level. This forecast is importantbecause of administrator's increasing difficulty to find the fiscal resources to adequatelysubsidize their program. The mixed methods study uncovered the myth thatintercollegiate athletic programs are in great fiscal health and outlined where leaders inintercollegiate athletics think the future will take us. Over 35 forecasts were identifiedthrough interviews with an intercollegiate athletic conference commissioner and anintercollegiate athletic consultant and were then rated by a panel of athletic directorsfrom the aforementioned conferences based on their desirability, impact and likelihoodof occurrence.After two rounds of a Delphi procedure, it was determined that over half of theissues, should they occur, would have a high impact. None of the 35 issues were rated ashaving no or low impact. One issue was rated as having the highest possible likelihoodof occurrence. The issue was that employee compensation, utility bills, travel costs, andmedical insurance will increase for institutions and athletic departments faster than the general, national rate of inflation. 32 issues were rated as having between a 21-80%chance of occurring, while two issues were given only a 0-20% chance of occurringwithin the next 10-15 years. The first forecasted that football scholarship limits will belowered from 85 over the next 10-15 years. The second forecasted that an antitrustexemption will be implemented over the next 10-15 years for intercollegiate athletics bythe federal government to cap wages. Over one-third of the issues obtained consensus intwo of the three areas rated. Three of the issues obtained consensus in all areas rated.