Assessment of the effectiveness of the advanced programmatic risk analysis and management model (apram) as a decision support tool for construction projects

摘要

Construction projects are complicated and fraught with so many risks that manyprojects are unable to meet pre-defined project objectives. Managers of constructionprojects require decision support tools that can be used to identify, analyze andimplement measures that can mitigate the effects of project risks. Several risk analysistechniques have been developed over the years to enable construction project managersto make useful decisions that can improve the chances of project success. These riskanalysis techniques however fail to simultaneously address risks relating to cost,schedule and quality. Also, construction projects may have scarce resources andconstruction managers still bear the responsibility of ensuring that project goals are met.Certain projects require trade-offs between technical and managerial risks and managersneed tools that can help them do this.This thesis evaluates the usefulness of the Advanced Programmatic RiskAnalysis and Management Model (APRAM) as a decision support tool for managingconstruction projects. The development of a visitor center in Midland, Texas was used asa case study for this research. The case study involved the implementation of APRAM during the concept phase of project development to determine the best constructionsystem that can minimize the expected cost of failure. A risk analysis performed using amore standard approach yielded an expected cost of failure that is almost eight times theexpected cost of failure yielded by APRAM.This study concludes that APRAM is a risk analysis technique that can minimizethe expected costs of failure by integrating project risks of time, budget and qualitythrough the allocation of resources. APRAM can also be useful for making constructionmanagement decisions. All identified component or material configurations for eachalternative system however, should be analyzed instead of analyzing only the lowest costalternative for each system as proposed by the original APRAM model. In addition, it isnot possible to use decision trees to determine the optimal allocation of managementreserves that would mitigate managerial problems during construction projects.Furthermore, APRAM does not address the issue of safety during construction andassumes all identifiable risks can be handled with money.