Rapid Loss Modeling of Death and Downtime Caused By Earthquake Induced Damage to Structures

摘要

It is important to assess and communicate the risk to life and downtime associated with earthquake induced damage to structures. Thus, a previously developed four-diagram/four-step approach to assess direct losses associated with structural damage, a similar quantitative risk assessment technique is used to examine the indirect loss associated with death and downtime. The four-step approach is subdivided into four distinct tasks: (a) Hazard analysis, (b) Structural analysis, (c) Loss analysis of both direct and indirect losses and (d) The total loss estimation due to damage, death and downtime. This empirically calibrated model in the form of power curve is used by establishing losses corresponding to onset of damage state 5 (complete damage) and limiting upper losses. The utility of the approach is investigated for the bridges in both California and New Zealand regions with different detailing. Results show that death related losses for bridges are generally twice and downtime five times the direct damage losses. Thus, it is concluded that structures should be designed for more than just acceptable physical damage. It is shown that a marked improvement can be made by moving to a comprehensive damage avoidance design paradigm.