Development of Future Habitat Suitability Models for the Swift fox (Vulpes velox) in the American Southwest

摘要

The Swift fox (Vupes velox) is a habitat specialist species of short or mixed grass prairie. We used bioclimatic envelope models and habitat suitability models under three future climate scenarios (based on CO2 emission rates) from "www.climatewizard.org":http://www.climatewizard.org to fit species distribution models, using the maximum entropy method. Current suitable habitat for the swift fox covers an area of 161,984 km2. Under the future climate scenarios the habitat decreases by 27% in the low emission scenario, 63% for medium emissions, and 53% in the high emissions scenario. This decrease in suitable habitat corresponded to an overall decrease in total grassland landcover. The current total area of grassland is 423,440 km2. Under the future climate scenarios the grassland decreased by 12% in the low emissions scenario, 24% for medium emissions, and 16% in the high emissions scenario.