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Sovereign-bank linkages: Quantifying directional intensity of risk transfers in EMU countries

机译:主权银行联系:量化欧洲货币联盟国家风险转移的方向性强度

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摘要

This study attempts to identify and trace inter-linkages between sovereign and banking risk for each main country in the euro area. To this end, we use an indicator of banking sector risk in each country based on the Contingent Claim Analysis literature, and 10-year government yield spreads over Germany as a measure of sovereign risk. We apply a dynamic approach to test for Granger causality between the two measures of risk in each country, allowing us to check for episodes of significant and abrupt increase in short-run causal linkages. The empirical results indicate that episodes of causality intensification vary considerably in both directions over time and across the different EMU countries. The directionality suggests the presence of causality intensification, mainly from banks to sovereigns in crisis periods.
机译:本研究试图识别欧元区每个主要国家的主权和银行风险之间的互联网间互联网。为此,我们在每个国家使用银行部门风险指标,基于同时索赔分析文献,10年政府收益率蔓延到德国作为主权风险的衡量标准。我们在每个国家的两种风险衡量标准之间应用动态方法来测试GRANGER因果关系,允许我们检查短期因果关系的显着且突然增加的剧集。经验结果表明,随着EMU国家的两个方向,因果关系集中的事件随着时间的推移而变化很大。方向性表明存在因果关系,主要来自银行到危机时期的主权。

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