Analyzing the critical risk factors associated with oil and gas pipeline projects in Iraq

摘要

Although Oil and Gas Pipelines (OGPs) are a safe and economical mode of transportation of petroleum products around the world, they face challenges caused by risk factors including safety, security, design, construction and operational risks due to Third Party Disruption (TPD) and acts of terrorism, particularly in developing and unstable countries like Iraq. A lack of knowledge about managing such risks and the scarcity of past data about pipeline failures, are hindering OGP risk management systems. This paper, therefore, focuses on identifying and analysing the risks caused by TDP in order to develop a holistic Risk Management Model (RMM). A semi-structured questionnaire was designed, using 30 risk factors identified through a comprehensive literature review, distributed to OGP stakeholders in Iraq, via an online survey tool, to collect the research data. SPSS was used to analyse the data and evaluate risk factors which were ranked in order of probability and severity level using a risk index method. A conceptual framework for the RMM is presented, based on the literature review and survey findings. The results reveal that terrorism, sabotage and theft are the most critical safety risks, official corruption and lawlessness the most influential factors for regulatory risks. Pipeline location “Hot-Zones” also have a serious impact on the failure of pipelines. A computer-based risk management model will be developed at the next stages of the study using the RMM and the results of the numerical risk analysis.