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Cointegration between macroeconomic factors and the exchange rate USD/CNY

机译:宏观经济因素与汇率之间的共同组成USD / CNY

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摘要

Abstract This research paper investigates the effect of macroeconomic variables on the exchange rate USD/CYN using yearly time series data for China economy from 1980 to 2017. ARDL bounds test approach for cointegration is applied to test the long-run relation between the dependent and the independent variables. The results of long-run ARDL indicate that gross domestic product growth and trade openness have a positive effect on the exchange rate USD/CNY while interest and inflation rates have a negative effect on the exchange rate. Based on the results of this study, it is recommended that the policymakers of the Chinese government should implement vital monetary and fiscal policies to determine the less volatile and productive exchange rate for China to manage sustainable economic growth for a long time with its trading partners.
机译:摘要本研究论文调查了宏观经济变量对汇率USD / CYN使用1980年至2017年中国经济的汇率/ CYN的影响。ARDL界限的协调性测试方法应用于测试依赖关系之间的长期关系独立变量。长期ARDL的结果表明,国内生产总值和贸易开放性对汇率USD / CNY具有积极影响,而兴趣和通货膨胀率对汇率产生负面影响。根据本研究的结果,建议中国政府的政策制定者实施重要的货币和财政政策,以确定中国贸易伙伴长期以来管理可持续经济增长的不稳定和生产性汇率。

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