A risk evaluation model for channel navigation based on the gray-fuzzy theory

摘要

Abstract In view of the fuzziness and randomness of the safety evaluation of the channel navigation environment, a risk evaluation model of the channel navigation is established with the set-valued statistics and the gray theory. A safety evaluation index system of channel navigation consisting of first-level indexes for the natural environment, navigation conditions, and traffic environment as well as 12 s-level indexes were established on the basis of comprehensively analyzing factors influencing the safety of the channel navigation environment. The weight of each evaluation index is determined through the model utilizing the set-valued statistics; also, the evaluation sample matrix is determined to realize the initial construction of the environmental scenario of channel navigation; and the safety of the channel navigation environment is evaluated quantitatively with the gray fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. Taking Guangdong inland channel as an example, the result shows that the safety evaluation method based on the set-valued statistics and the gray fuzzy theory features simple calculation as well as objective and accurate results, which is convenient for practical application.