Evaluation of Sustainable Use of Water Resources in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region Based on S-Type Functions and Set Pair Analysis

摘要

Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei is an area with insufficient per capita water resources. This study evaluates the current status and development trend of sustainable use of water resources in the region, and identifies specific factors influencing sustainable development so as to provide a theoretical basis and data support for the management of water resources in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. Applying the compound system of social, economic and ecological environment, this study established an evaluation index system. The evaluation index data is obtained through the relevant calculations based on the National Economic and Social Development Announcement, the Water Resources Bulletin and the National Bureau of Statistics data. The index weights are calculated using a combination of rough set and fuzzy theory. The obtained weights were added to the set pair analysis method to acquire evaluation results. Based on the traditional set pair analysis method, this study proposes a new set pair analysis method (Method 4) using S-type functions (Formula (11)) instead of the addition weighted synthesis method (Formula (10)) in the calculation of weighted connections. In order to verify the feasibility of this method, the Spearman correlation coefficient method was used to calculate the correlation coefficient between evaluation results of Method 4 and evaluation results of other traditional methods. In addition, the set pair exponential potential is adopted to determine the impact indicators of the sustainable utilization of water resources in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei in this study. The results show that in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, the overall level of sustainable use of water resources has been gradually raised in the past 12 years. The results of the set pair analysis method that cites S-type functions have obtained higher Spearman correlation coefficients than traditional methods. The values of the correlation coefficients are 0.9954, 0.9910, and 0.9928 respectively in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei. Moreover, according to the results of set pair exponential potential, the indicators in the region are quasi-inverse potential or strong inverse potential, including per capita water resources and the ecological environment water use rate. Thus, a dense population with scarce water resources, and a lack of ecological water are the common problems that Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei have to face.