Standardized Methodology for Target Surveillance against African Swine Fever

摘要

African swine fever (ASF) remains the most serious pig infectious disease, and its persistence in domestic pigs and wild boar (WB) is a threat for the global industry. The surveillance of WB plays a central role in controlling the disease and rapidly detecting new cases. As we are close to eradicating ASF, the need to find any possible pockets of infection is even more important. In this context, passive surveillance is the method of choice for effective surveillance in WB. Considering the time and economic resources related to passive surveillance, to prioritize these activities, we developed a standardized methodology able to identify areas where WB surveillance should be focused on. Using GIS-technology, we divided a specific Sardinian infected area into 1 km2 grids (a total of 3953 grids). Variables related to WB density, ASF cases during the last three years, sex and age of animals, and the type of land were associated with each grid. Epidemiological models were used to identify the areas with both a lack of information and an high risk of hidden ASFV persistence. The results led to the creation of a graphic tool providing specific indications about areas where surveillance should be a priority.