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Analysis of Natural Streamflow Variation and Its Influential Factors on the Yellow River from 1957 to 2010

机译:1957至2010年黄河自然流杂散变异及其影响因素分析

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摘要

In this study, variation characteristics of hydrometeorological factors were explored based on observed time-series data between 1957 and 2010 in four subregions of the Yellow River Basin. For each region, precipitation–streamflow models at annual and flood-season scales were developed to quantify the impact of annual precipitation, temperature, percentage of flood-season precipitation, and anthropogenic interference. The sensitivities of annual streamflow to these three climatic factors were then calculated using a modified elasticity coefficient model. The results presented the following: (1) Annual streamflow exhibited a negative trend in all regions; (2) The reduction of annual streamflow was mainly caused by a precipitation decrease and temperature increase for all regions before 2000, whereas the contribution of anthropogenic interference increased significantly—more than 45%, except for Tang-Tou region after 2000. The percentage of flood-season precipitation variation can also be responsible for annual streamflow reduction with a range of 7.36% (Tang-Tou) to 21.88% (Source); (3) Annual streamflow was more sensitive to annual precipitation than temperature in the humid region, and the opposite situation was observed in the arid region. The sensitivities to intra-annual climate variation increased after 2000 for all regions, and the increase was more significant in Tou-Long and Long-Hua regions.
机译:在这项研究中,探讨了水质气象因素的变化特征,基于1957年至2010年间的观察时间序列数据在黄河流域的四个次区域。对于每个地区,开发了每年和汛期尺度下的降水流模型,以量化年降水,温度,洪水季节降水量和人为干扰的影响。然后使用修改的弹性系数模型计算每年流动流向这三种气候因子的敏感性。结果提出如下:(1)年度流流在所有地区的负面趋势表现出色; (2)每年流出的减少主要是由2000年之前的所有地区降水降低和温度升高,而2000年后的唐TOU地区除了唐Tou地区外,人为干扰的贡献显着增加了45%。洪水季节降水变化也可能负责年度流流量减少,范围为7.36%(Tang-tou)至21.88%(来源); (3)年流出对年降水量比潮湿地区的温度更敏感,并且在干旱地区观察到相反的情况。对于所有地区,2000年后,对年度气候变化的敏感性增加,而且在Tou-long和Long-Hua地区的增加,增加更为显着。

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