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Representation Bias, Return Forecast, and Portfolio Selection in the Stock Market of China

机译:中国股票市场的代表偏见,回报预测和投资组合选择

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摘要

Representation bias means a kind of cognitive tendency, and, for investors, it can affect their behavior in the stock market. Whether the representation bias can help the return forecast and portfolio selection is an interesting problem that is less studied. In this paper, based on the representation bias theory and current markets situation in China, a new hierarchy of stock measurement system is constructed and a corresponding set of criteria is also proposed. On each criterion, we try to measure the influence among stocks with adapted fuzzy AHP. Then the Hausdorff distance is applied to weight and compute the horizontal representation returns. For the forecast returns, according to representation behaviors, there is also a new computation method. Empirical results show that the representation bias information is useful to the return forecast as well as the portfolio selection.
机译:代表性偏见意味着一种认知倾向,而且对于投资者来说,它可以影响他们在股票市场的行为。表示偏见是否可以帮助回报预测和投资组合选择是一种较少研究的有趣问题。本文基于中国的代表性理论和当前市场的情况,建设了一种新的库存测量系统等级,并提出了相应的标准。在每个标准上,我们尝试测量具有适应模糊AHP的股票的影响。然后将Hausdorff距离应用于重量并计算水平表示返回。对于预测返回,根据表示行为,还有一个新的计算方法。经验结果表明,表示偏差信息对回报预测以及产品组合选择有用。

著录项

  • 作者

    Daping Zhao; Yong Fang;

  • 作者单位
  • 年度 2014
  • 总页数
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类

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