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A Maximum Entropy Multisource Information Fusion Method to Evaluate the MTBF of Low-Voltage Switchgear

机译:一种评估低压开关设备MTBF的最大熵多源信息融合方法

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摘要

When analyzing the reliability of low-voltage switchgear by Bayesian method, the maximum entropy multisource information fusion method was proposed to obtain the prior information of low-voltage switchgear and then evaluate the reliability. The historical data of low-voltage switchgear was collected and organized from a manufacturer. According to the expert experience and the data, the creditability analysis and the compatibility test were presented by the Smirnov test method. Based on the high creditability and compatibility, the result of the maximum entropy multisource information fusion method is the determination of prior information. Therefore, the distribution type of the prior information was confirmed by using the maximum entropy method, and the parameter of the prior information was received by bootstrap method with MATLAB. Then the posterior distribution was obtained to evaluate the MTBF of low-voltage switchgear. Finally, the historical data of years from 2007 to 2010 was taken as prior information to illustrate the maximum entropy multisource information fusion method and to get the MTBF of low-voltage switchgear. The evaluation result reduces the experimental period and test cost, which is an improvement for the reliability evaluation and management of low-voltage switchgear and also an improvement for other systems with simple sample data. Compared with traditional Bayesian networks, the proposed method can fuse experts experience and historical data and has advantages for the use of prior information effectively.
机译:在贝叶斯方法分析低压开关设备的可靠性时,提出了最大熵多源信息融合方法,以获得低压开关设备的先前信息,然后评估可靠性。从制造商收集和组织低压开关设备的历史数据。根据专家经验和数据,Smirnov测试方法提出了可信度分析和兼容性测试。基于高信用率和兼容性,最大熵多源信息融合方法的结果是确定先前信息。因此,通过使用最大熵方法确认先前信息的分发类型,并通过带有MATLAB的Bootstrap方法接收先前信息的参数。然后获得后部分布以评估低压开关设备的MTBF。最后,从2007年到2010年的历史数据被视为先前的信息,以说明最大熵多源信息融合方法并获得低压开关设备的MTBF。评估结果降低了实验期和试验成本,这是对低压开关设备的可靠性评估和管理的改进,以及简单示例数据的其他系统的改进。与传统的贝叶斯网络相比,该方法可以融合专家经验和历史数据,并有效地利用先前信息。

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