Development of Spatial-System Dynamics Model for Food Security Policy in Indonesia: A Generic Sub-Model Simulation

摘要

Abstract. The Indonesia has the immense geographic condition and heterogeneous condition, therefore food security issues could not be aggregated nationally, instead, they have to be described per region. In this paper, the region is defined as a province. Food security issues in every region are dynamic, and generated with complex system structure, will be described in the paper as follows. First, in order to have the comprehensive description of food security, we develop a new spatial system dynamics model that combines the concept of space and time. Previous spatial system dynamics methods could only describe the dynamics of the natural/physical system. The new spatial system dynamics proposed in this paper is designed to accommodate human decision for policy intervention. Then, we develop a decision support system, as follow. (1) After comparing characteristics of each province, we can identify the similarity of all province. We call the similarity as the generic model. (2). We propose a new method of spatial system dynamics that can accommodate the immense geographic condition and the heterogeneity. (3) By combining the generic model and the new method we propose a comprehensive model for decision support system in food security policy. Finally, from the experiments with a simulation of the comprehensive model, we could understand that a policy intervention of food security could give impact differently toward each region.Keywords: System dynamics, spatial system dynamics, food security, modeling, policy