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Bayesian Regression Using a Prior on the Model Fit: The R2-D2 Shrinkage Prior

机译:贝叶斯回归使用先前的模型适合:R2-D2收缩率先

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摘要

We propose a new class of priors for linear regression, the R-square inducedDirichlet Decomposition (R2-D2) prior. The prior is induced by a Beta prior onthe coefficient of determination, and then the total prior variance of theregression coefficients is decomposed through a Dirichlet prior. We demonstrateboth theoretically and empirically the advantages of the R2-D2 prior over anumber of common shrink- age priors, including the Horseshoe, Horseshoe+, andDirichlet-Laplace priors. The R2-D2 prior possesses the fastest concentrationrate around zero and heaviest tails among these common shrinkage priors, whichis established based on its marginal density, a Meijer G-function. We show thatits Bayes estimator converges to the truth at a Kullback-Leiblersuper-efficient rate, attaining a sharper information theoretic bound thanexisting common shrinkage priors. We also demonstrate that the R2-D2 prioryields a consistent posterior. The R2-D2 prior permits straightforward Gibbssampling and thus enjoys computational tractability. The proposed prior isfurther investigated in a mouse gene expression application.
机译:我们提出了一类新的线性回归的前瞻性,R-Square诱导程氮分解(R2-D2)之前。在确定系数的情况下,通过β诱导的β诱导,然后通过先前通过Dirichlet分解带有的总成系数的总体的总差。我们从理论上和经验上展示了在普通的缩小次龄前的过度的R2-D2之前的R2-D2的优点,包括马蹄,马蹄+,anddirichlet-laplact Priors。 R2-D2之前的速率最快,在这些普通收缩前沿中最快,最重的尾部,基于其边际密度,Meijer G函数建立。我们展示了贝叶斯估计器会聚到真相,以kullback-leiblersuper高效的速率,达到了更清晰的信息理论绑定的普通收缩前沿。我们还证明了R2-D2 prioryields是一致的后部。 R2-D2先验允许直接的GibbsS采样,从而享有计算途径。所提出的预先在小鼠基因表达申请中研究。

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