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Analysis of Small Hydropower Generation Potential: (2) Future Prospect of the Potential under Climate Change

机译:小水电站潜力分析:(2)气候变化下潜力的未来前景

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摘要

The interest in renewable energy to replace fossil fuel is increasing as the problem caused by climate change has become more severe. In this study, small hydropower (SHP) was evaluated as a resource with high development value because of its high energy density compared to other renewable energy sources. SHP may be an attractive and sustainable power generation environmental perspective because of its potential to be found in small rivers and streams. The power generation potential could be estimated based on the discharge in the river basin. Since the river discharge depends on the climate conditions, the hydropower generation potential changes sensitively according to climate variability. Therefore, it is necessary to analyze the SHP potential in consideration of future climate change. In this study, the future prospect of SHP potential is simulated for the period of 2021 to 2100 considering the climate change in three hydropower plants of Deoksong, Hanseok, and Socheon stations, Korea. The results show that SHP potential for the near future (2021 to 2040) shows a tendency to be increased, and the highest increase is 23.4% at the Deoksong SPH plant. Through the result of future prospect, we have shown that hydroelectric power generation capacity or SHP potential will be increased in the future. Therefore, we believe that it is necessary to revitalize the development of SHP to expand the use of renewable energy. In addition, a methodology presented in this study could be used for the future prospect of the SHP potential.
机译:随着气候变化引起的问题变得更加严重的问题,对更换化石燃料的可再生能源的兴趣正在增加。在本研究中,由于其与其他可再生能源相比,小水电(SHP)被评估为具有高开发值的资源,其高能量密度。由于其在小河和溪流中存在,SHP可能是一种有吸引力和可持续的发电环境视角。可以基于河流域的放电来估计发电电位。由于河流放电取决于气候条件,因此水电站的电位根据气候变异性敏感地变化。因此,有必要考虑到未来的气候变化,分析SHP潜力。在这项研究中,考虑到韩国三大水电站的气候变化,SHP潜力的未来展望是模拟了2021年至2100的模拟。结果表明,近期近期的SHP电位(2021至2040)显示出增加的趋势,在德雄斯普尔厂的增加是23.4%。通过未来前景的结果,我们表明将来水电发电能力或SHP潜力将增加。因此,我们认为有必要振兴SHP的发展,以扩大可再生能源的使用。此外,本研究中提出的方法可用于SHP潜力的未来前景。

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