Do Biases in Probability Judgment Matter in Markets? Experimental Evidenceud

摘要

Microeconomic theory typically concernsudexchange between individuals or firms in audmarket setting. To make predictions precise,udindividuals are usually assumed to use theudlaws of probability in structuring and revisingudbeliefs about uncertainties. Recent evidence,udmostly gathered by psychologists,udsuggests probability theories might be inadequateuddescriptive models of individual choice.ud(See the books edited by Daniel Kahnemanudet al., 1982a, and by Hal Arkes and KennethudHammond, 1986.)