Reply to 'Comment on ‘Statistical Features of Short-Period and Long-Period Near-Source Ground Motions’ by Masumi Yamada, Anna H. Olsen, and Thomas H. Heaton' by Roberto Paolucci, Carlo Cauzzi, Ezio Faccioli, Marco Stupazzini, and Manuela Villaniud

摘要

The comment by Paolucci and colleagues (Paolucci et al., 2011) states that a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) can provide "reliable prediction of long-period spectral ordinates." The result of such an analysis would be in contrast to the more uncertain prediction suggested by our empirical, and proposed theoretical, distribution of near-source ground displacements in past, large magnitude earthquakes (Yamada et al., 2009). After addressing two specific concerns of Paolucci and colleagues, we use the balance of this reply to discuss the apparent differences between a PSHA and our observations. These two approaches to understanding the seismic hazard of long-period ground motions should be consistent even though they view the problem from different perspectives. udud