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An Ounce of Prevention: Probabilistic Loss Estimation for Performance-Based Earthquake Engineering

机译:一盎司的预防:基于性能的地震工程的概率损失估计

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摘要

Performance-based earthquake engineering (PBEE) is a methodology that incorporatesdesired performance levels into the design process. Performance in PBEE can be expressedin economic terms, or as elapsed downtime, or in terms of life and building safetyobjectives. These performance objectives are relevant to various types of stakeholders.They should be addressed in building loss estimation procedures because after anearthquake, the repair cost will not be the only "loss" suffered by building stakeholders. Ina sizeable earthquake, there will likely also be some losses due to business interruptionduring the repair effort, building closure taken as a post-earthquake safety precaution, andhuman casualties caused by building failures during the seismic event.An analytical approach for PBEE is developed and implemented to evaluate theperformance of a new reinforced-concrete moment-frame office building. The PBEEapproach used is consistent with the Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research (PEER)center's modular framework, which is divided into four core analytical stages: hazardanalysis, structural analysis, damage analysis, and loss analysis. Future losses of thebuilding are uncertain because they depend on uncertain quantities, such as the shakingintensity of the earthquake, the mechanical properties of the facility, and the uncertaindamageability and unit repair costs of the facility. An analytical approach is developed topropagate these uncertainties. This work presents the mathematical foundation for thedamage and loss analyses, and a description of its implementation into software. Theresults from running this software on multiple design variants of the building are presented,viiiincluding seismic vulnerabilities as a function of shaking intensity and correspondingexpected annual losses.The methodology developed and implemented in this work estimates the direct economiclosses due to repair costs as well as two types of indirect economic losses, those producedby building downtime and by human fatalities. A procedure for a virtual inspection is usedto assess the safety of buildings, based on current damage assessment guidelines.Additionally, a model is established to estimate human fatalities caused by the partial andglobal collapse of buildings, using probabilities of fatality based on relevant empirical dataand the results of the virtual inspection process. A simplified methodology is presented forestimating building downtime after seismic events, including mobilization delays beforeconstruction begins and the elapsed time needed to repair damaged building components.The losses due to downtime and human fatalities are then added to the building repair costin order to estimate the total building loss, which is then used to perform a benefit-costanalysis of the benchmark building. The work presented, is to our knowledge, the mostfaithful attempt to estimate the main decision variables (termed the 3 Ds-dollars, deaths,and downtime), proposed by PEER and the ATC-58 Project for performance assessment ofstructures.
机译:基于性能的地震工程(PBEE)是一种将所需性能水平纳入设计过程的方法。 PBEE中的性能可以用经济术语或停机时间表示,也可以用生命和建筑安全目标表示。这些绩效目标与各种类型的利益相关者相关。在建筑物损失估算程序中应解决这些问题,因为地震后,维修成本将不是建筑物利益相关者遭受的唯一“损失”。在大地震中,由于维修工作中的业务中断,作为地震后安全预防措施而关闭的建筑物以及地震事件中建筑物故障造成的人员伤亡,也可能会造成一些损失.PBEE的分析方法已得到开发和实施评估新型钢筋混凝土矩型框架办公楼的性能。所使用的PBEE方法与太平洋地震工程研究(PEER)中心的模块化框架一致,该框架分为四个核心分析阶段:危害分析,结构分析,损坏分析和损失分析。建筑物的未来损失是不确定的,因为它们取决于不确定的数量,例如地震的剧烈程度,设施的机械性能以及不确定的损害性和设施的维修成本。开发了一种分析方法来传播这些不确定性。这项工作为损坏和损耗分析提供了数学基础,并对其在软件中的实现进行了描述。给出了在该建筑物的多个设计变体上运行该软件的结果,其中包括地震脆弱性与震动强度的函数关系以及相应的预期年度损失。在这项工作中开发和实施的方法估计了维修成本和两种类型的直接经济损失。间接经济损失的损失,这些损失是由停机时间和人命伤亡造成的。根据当前的损害评估指南,使用虚拟检查程序评估建筑物的安全性。此外,建立了一个模型来估计由建筑物部分和全球倒塌造成的人员死亡,并根据相关经验数据和虚拟检查过程的结果。提出了一种简化的方法来估算地震事件后的建筑物停机时间,包括施工开始前的动员延误以及修复受损建筑物组件所需的时间,然后将停机时间和人身伤亡造成的损失加到建筑物维修成本中,以估算整个建筑物损失,然后用于对基准建筑物进行成本效益分析。就我们所知,提出的工作是对PEER和ATC-58项目提出的用于评估结构性能的主要决策变量(称为3 Ds美元,死亡和停机时间)的最忠实尝试。

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    Mitrani-Reiser Judith;

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  • 年度 2007
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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 {"code":"en","name":"English","id":9}
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