The process-performance paradox in expert judgment - How can experts know so much and predict so badly?

摘要

A mysterious fatal disease strikes a large minority of the population.udThe disease is incurable, but an expensive drug can keep victims alive. Congress decides that the drug should be given to those whose lives can beudextended longest, which only a few specialists can predict. The experts workudaround the clock searching for a cure; allocating the drug is a new chore theyudwould rather avoid.