Driving Forces of Energy-Related CO2 Emissions Based on Expanded IPAT Decomposition Analysis: Evidence from ASEAN and Four Selected Countries

摘要

ASEAN is a dynamic and diverse region which has experienced rapid urbanization and population growth. Their energy demand grew by 60% in the last 15 years. In 2013, about 3.6% of global greenhouse-gas emissions was emitted from this region and the share is expected to rise substantially. Hence, a better understanding of driving forces of the changes in CO2 emissions is important to tackle global climate change and develop appropriate policies. Using IPAT combined with variance analysis, this study aims to identify the main driving factors of CO2 emissions for ASEAN and four selected countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines and Thailand) during 1971⁻2013. The results show that population growth and economic growth were the main driving factors for increasing CO2 emissions for most of the countries. Fossil fuels play an important role in increasing CO2 emissions, however the growth in emissions was compensated by improved energy efficiency and carbon intensity of fossil energy. The results imply that to decouple energy use from high levels of emissions is important. Proper energy management through fuel substitution and decreasing emission intensity through technological upgrades have considerable potential to cut emissions.