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Projecting the effects of climate change on Calanus finmarchicus distribution within the U.S. Northeast Continental Shelf

机译:投影气候变化对美国东北大陆架内Calanus Finmarchicus分配的影响

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摘要

Abstract Calanus finmarchicus is vital to pelagic ecosystems in the North Atlantic Ocean. Previous studies suggest the species is vulnerable to the effects of global warming, particularly on the Northeast U.S. Shelf, which is in the southern portion of its range. In this study, we evaluate an ensemble of six different downscaled climate models and a high-resolution global climate model, and create a generalized additive model (GAM) to examine how future changes in temperature and salinity could affect the distribution and density of C. finmarchicus. By 2081–2100, we project average C. finmarchicus density will decrease by as much as 50% under a high greenhouse gas emissions scenario. These decreases are particularly pronounced in the spring and summer in the Gulf of Maine and Georges Bank. When compared to a high-resolution global climate model, the ensemble showed a more uniform change throughout the Northeast U.S. Shelf, while the high-resolution model showed larger decreases in the Northeast Channel, Shelf Break, and Central Gulf of Maine. C. finmarchicus is an important link between primary production and higher trophic levels, and the decrease projected here could be detrimental to the North Atlantic Right Whale and a host of important fishery species.
机译:抽象的Calanus finmarchicus对北大西洋的骨质生态系统至关重要。以前的研究表明该物种容易受到全球变暖的影响,特别是在东北美国货架上,这是在其范围内的南部。在这项研究中,我们评估了六种不同的较次级气候模型和高分辨率全球气候模型的集合,并创造了一般性添加剂模型(GAM),以检查温度和盐度的未来变化如何影响C的分布和密度。 finmarchicus。到2081-2100,我们将平均C.在高温室气体排放场景下,FinMarchicus密度将在50%下降。这些减少在缅因州湾和乔治库湾的春季和夏季特别明显。与高分辨率全球气候模型相比,该集合在东北美国货架上显示了更统一的变化,而高分辨率模型在东北通道,储备突破和缅因州的中央湾的较大幅度下降。 C. FINMARCRICUS是初级生产和更高营养级别之间的重要联系,这里投入的减少可能对北大西洋右鲸和一系列重要的渔业物种有害。

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