Around the goal: examining the effect of the first goal on the second goal in soccer using survival analysis methods

摘要

In this paper we apply survival techniques to soccer data, treating a goalscoring as the event of interest. It specifically concerns the relationshipbetween the time of the first goal in the game and the time of the second goal.In order to do so, the relevant survival analysis concepts are readjusted tofit the problem and a Cox model is developed for the hazard function.Attributes such as time dependent covariates and a frailty term are also beingconsidered. We also use a reliable propensity score to summarize the pre-gamecovariates. The conclusions derived from the results are that a first goaloccurrence could either expedite or impede the next goal scoring, depending onthe time it was scored. Moreover, once a goal is scored, another goal scoringbecome more and more likely as the game progresses. Furthermore, the first goaleffect is the same whether the goal was scored or conceded.