Probabilistic-statistical estimation of reserves and resources according to the international classification SPE-PRMS

摘要

Today in the oil and gas industry there is a large number of different classifications of hydrocarbon reserves and resources, each of which has advantages and disadvantages. This work includes analysis, comparison, as well as the possibility of comparing the results obtained at first glance, seemingly, from completely different methods of assessment of hydrocarbon reserves and resources.The purpose of the paper is to consider the features of calculating hydrocarbon reserves by different methods and to study the feasibility and appropriateness of applying the probabilistic method for reserves audit. The oil reserves were calculated by volumetric method based on the geological model of the deposit, constructed using the IRAP RMS software package. The variability of the counting parameters was specified in the “Uncertainty” module, with the help of which it is possible to build a geological model with equiprobable realizations, having insufficient data on the main characteristics of the field.When calculating the uncertainty, the variance by values was set for the following parameters: water-oil contact level, recalculation factor, porosity and water saturation coefficients. After computation and enumeration of possible implementations within the given parameters, the program generated the result in the form of three reserve values: P10 (probable), P50 (possible), P90 (proved). To compare the results of the reserves calculation, the resulting oil-saturated thickness maps were used to trace the distribution of geological reserves.Based on the conducted research, it was revealed that input data and a different approach to the construction of the 3D geological model influence the final result in the distribution of the reservoir and the main parameters in the volume method formula. For a correct figure of hydrocarbon reserves (resources), it is necessary to use a multivariate distribution of counting parameters in the geological space of the considered object.