Next generation cellular systems are expected to entail a wide variety of wireless coverage zones, with cells of different sizes and capacities that can overlap in space and share the transmission resources. In this scenario, which is referred to as Heterogeneous Networks (HetNets), a fundamental challenge is the management of the handover process between macro, femto and pico cells. To limit the number of handovers and the signaling between the cells, it will hence be crucial to manage the user's mobility considering the context parameters, such as cells size, traffic loads, and user velocity. In this paper, we propose a theoretical model to characterize the performance of a mobile user in a HetNet scenario as a function of the user's mobility, the power profile of the neighboring cells, the handover parameters, and the traffic load of the different cells. We propose a Markov-based framework to model the handover process for the mobile user, and derive an optimal context-dependent handover criterion. The mathematical model is validated by means of simulations, comparing the performance of our strategy with conventional handover optimization techniques in different scenarios. Finally, we show the impact of the handover regulation on the users performance and how it is possible to improve the users capacity exploiting context information.
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