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Application of Bayesian Multilevel Models Using Small and Medium Size City in China: The Case of Changchun

机译:贝叶斯多级模型在中国中小型城市的应用:长春的情况

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摘要

Concerns about transportation energy consumption and emissions force urban planners and policy makers to pay more attention to the effects of car ownership and use on the environment in China. However, few studies have investigated the relationship between the built environment and car ownership and use in China, especially in mid-sized and small cities. This study uses Changchun, China as a case study and examines the potential impacts of the built environment and socio-demographics on car ownership and use for commuting simultaneously using Bayesian multilevel binary logistic models. Furthermore, the spatial autocorrelation of car ownership and use is recognized across traffic analysis zones (TAZs), which are specifically represented by the conditional autoregressive (CAR) model. The estimated results indicate that socio-demographic characteristics have significant effects on car ownership and use. Moreover, the built environment measured at the TAZ level still shows a significant association with other factors controlled. Specifically, it suggests that denser residential density, compact land use, better transit services and street connectivity can reduce car dependency more effectively. This study provides new insights into how the built environment influences the car ownership and use, which can be useful for urban planners and policy makers to develop strategies for reducing car dependency.
机译:对运输能源消费和排放力量的担忧,城市规划者和决策者更加注重汽车所有权和对中国环境的影响。然而,很少有研究已经调查了建筑环境和汽车所有权之间的关系,并在中国使用,特别是在中型和小城市。本研究采用了中国长春作为案例研究,审查了建筑环境和社会人口统计数据对汽车所有权的潜在影响,并使用贝叶斯多级二进制物流模型同时通勤。此外,跨交通分析区域(TAZS)认识到汽车所有权和使用的空间自相关,这些区域由条件自回归(CAR)模型具体表示。估计结果表明,社会人口统计特征对汽车所有权和使用具有显着影响。此外,在TAZ水平上测量的内置环境仍然显示与控制的其他因素有关的重要关联。具体而言,它表明更密集的住宅密度,紧凑的土地使用,更好的过境服务和街道连接可以更有效地降低汽车依赖。本研究为建筑环境如何影响汽车所有权和使用,为城市规划者和决策者提供了新的洞察,这对城市规划者和决策者制定了降低汽车依赖的策略。

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