A Novel Optimized Nonlinear Grey Bernoulli Model for Forecasting China’s GDP

摘要

The nonlinear grey Bernoulli model, abbreviated as NGBM(1,1), has been successfully applied to control, prediction, and decision-making fields, especially in the prediction of nonlinear small sample time series. However, there are still some problems in improving the prediction accuracy of NGBM(1,1). In this paper, we propose a novel optimized nonlinear grey Bernoulli model for forecasting Chinaʼs GDP. In the new model, the structure and parameters of NGBM(1,1) are optimized simultaneously. Especially, the latest item of first-order accumulative generating operator (1-AGO) sequence is taken as the initial condition, then background value is reconstructed by optimizing weights of neighbor values in 1-AGO sequence, which is based on minimizing the sum of absolute percentage errors, and finally, we establish the new model based on the rolling mechanism. Prediction accuracy of the proposed model is investigated through some simulations and a real example application, and the proposed model is applied to forecast the annual GDP in China from 2019 to 2023.