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An Alternative Multi-Model Ensemble Forecast for Tropical Cyclone Tracks in the Western North Pacific

机译:北太平洋西部热带旋风轨道的替代多模型集合预测

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摘要

This study introduces an unequally weighted technique for Multi-model Ensemble (MME) forecasting for western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone (TC) tracks. Weights are calculated by partial least square regression, and members are selected by paired t-test. The performances for shorter forecast time ranges, such as 24, 48 and 72 h, are examined in order to improve the MME model, in which the weights for members are equally assigned. For longer forecast time ranges, such as 96 and 120 h, weights for MME members are thought to be less reliable, since the modeling is more likely to be influenced by the climate variability in the data period. A combination of both techniques for the shorter and the longer forecast time ranges is suggested as an alternative MME forecast procedure in operational meteorological agencies.
机译:本研究介绍了对西北太平洋热带气旋(TC)轨道的多模型集合(MME)预测的不均衡技术。权重由偏最小二乘回归计算,并且通过配对的T检验选择成员。检查用于更短的预测时间范围的性能,例如24,48和72h,以便改善MME模型,其中构件的权重被同等地分配。对于更长的预测时间范围,例如96和120h,MME成员的重量被认为不太可靠,因为建模更可能受到数据时段中的气候变化的影响。这两种技术的组合和更长的预测时间范围都被认为是运营气象机构中的替代MME预测程序。

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