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Stochastic downscaling of precipitation in complex orography: a simple method to reproduce a realistic fine-scale climatology

机译:复杂地形中的沉淀随机缩小:一种复制逼真细微气候学的简单方法

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摘要

Stochastic rainfall downscaling methods usually do not take intoaccount orographic effects or local precipitation features at spatial scalesfiner than those resolved by the large-scale input field. For this reasonthey may be less reliable in areas with complex topography or with sub-gridsurface heterogeneities. Here we test a simple method to introduce realisticfine-scale precipitation patterns into the downscaled fields, with theobjective of producing downscaled data more suitable for climatological andhydrological applications as well as for extreme event studies. The proposedmethod relies on the availability of a reference fine-scale precipitationclimatology from which corrective weights for the downscaled fields arederived. We demonstrate the method by applying it to the Rainfall FilteredAutoregressive Model (RainFARM) stochastic rainfall downscaling algorithm.The modified RainFARM method is tested focusing on an area of complextopography encompassing the Swiss Alps, first, in a perfect-modelexperiment in which high-resolution (4 km) simulations performed with theWeather Research and Forecasting (WRF) regional model are aggregated to acoarser resolution (64 km) and then downscaled back to 4 km and compared withthe original data. Second, the modified RainFARM is applied to the E-OBSgridded precipitation data (0.25° spatial resolution) over Switzerland,where high-quality gridded precipitation climatologies and accurate in situobservations are available for comparison with the downscaled data for theperiod 1981–2010.The results of the perfect-model experiment confirm a clear improvementin the description of the precipitation distribution when the RainFARMstochastic downscaling is applied, either with or without the implementedorographic adjustment. When we separately analyze grid points withprecipitation climatology higher or lower than the median calculated over theneighboring grid points, we find that the probability density function (PDF)of the real precipitation is better reproduced using the modified RainFARMrather than the standard RainFARM method. In fact, the modified methodsuccessfully assigns more precipitation to areas where precipitation is onaverage more abundant according to a reference long-term climatology.The results of the E-OBS downscaling show that the modified RainFARMintroduces improvements in the representation of precipitation amplitudes.While for low-precipitation areas the downscaled and the observed PDFs are ingood agreement, for high-precipitation areas residual differences persist,mainly related to known E-OBS deficiencies in properly representing thecorrect range of precipitation values in the Alpine region. The downscalingmethod discussed is not intended to correct the bias which may be present inthe coarse-scale data, so possible biases should be adjusted before applyingthe downscaling procedure.
机译:随机降雨镇压方法通常不会进入空间尺度的帐户地形效果或本地降水功能比大规模输入字段解决的那些。为此原因它们在具有复杂地形或子网的区域可能不那么可靠表面异质性。在这里,我们测试一种简单的方法来介绍现实将细量的降水模式进入较低的领域,其中有产生更适合气候学和气候的缩小数据的目标水文应用以及极端事件研究。提议方法依赖于参考细尺降水的可用性气候学来自哪个较次要字段的矫正权重衍生的。我们通过将其应用于过滤的降雨来展示该方法自回归模型(Rainfarm)随机降雨镇压算法。经过修饰的Rainfarm方法测试专注于复合物区域地形包括瑞士阿尔卑斯山,首先,在一个完美的型号中实验,其中具有高分辨率(4公里)的模拟天气研究和预测(WRF)区域模型与A汇总较粗糙的分辨率(64 km),然后折叠回4公里并与之相比原始数据。其次,改进的Rainfarm适用于E-OBS瑞士网格的降水数据(0.25°空间分辨率),在那里高质量的包装沉淀气候和原位准确观察可与较低的数据进行比较1981-2010期间。完美模型实验的结果证实了明确的改进在Rainfarm时降水分布的描述随机缩小装置,无论是在还是没有实施的情况下地理调整。当我们分开分析网格点时降水气候高于或低于计算的中位数邻近的网格点,我们发现概率密度函数(PDF)使用改进的Rainfarm更好地再现真正的降水而不是标准的Rainfarm方法。实际上,修改方法成功为降水所在的区域分配更多的降水量根据参考的长期气候学,平均更丰富。E-OBS级较低的结果表明修改后的Rainfarm介绍降水幅度表示的改进。在低降水区域的同时,较低的和观察到的PDF良好的一致性,对于高降水区残余差异持续存在,主要与已知的E-OBS缺陷相关的主要代表在高山地区的校正沉淀值范围。贬低所讨论的方法不是为了校正可能存在的偏差施加粗略数据,因此应在施用之前进行调整可能的偏差缩小程序。

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