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Performance of Test Supermartingale Confidence Intervals for the Success Probability of Bernoulli Trials

机译:测试Supermartingale置信度的性能为伯努利试验的成功概率

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摘要

Given a composite null hypothesis H, test supermartingales are non-negativesupermartingales with respect to H with initial value 1. Large values of testsupermartingales provide evidence against H. As a result, test supermartingalesare an effective tool for rejecting H, particularly when the p-values obtainedare very small and serve as certificates against the null hypothesis. Examplesinclude the rejection of local realism as an explanation of Bell testexperiments in the foundations of physics and the certification of entanglementin quantum information science. Test supermartingales have the advantage ofbeing adaptable during an experiment and allowing for arbitrary stopping rules.By inversion of acceptance regions, they can also be used to determineconfidence sets. We use an example to compare the performance of testsupermartingales for computing p-values and confidence intervals toChernoff-Hoeffding bounds and the "exact" p-value. The example is the problemof inferring the probability of success in a sequence of Bernoulli trials.There is a cost in using a technique that has no restriction on stopping rules,and for a particular test supermartingale, our study quantifies this cost.
机译:考虑到复合无效假设H,测试超大型是具有初始值的H的非负性upermartingales 1. Testsupermartingales的大值提供了针对H的证据。结果,测试SuperMartingAlesare是用于拒绝H的有效工具,特别是当P值时获得了非常小的,并用作零假设的证书。实施例包括拒绝当地现实主义作为物理学基础的贝尔试验性的解释和纠缠素量子信息科学认证。测试SuperMartingales具有适应在实验期间适应的优势,并且允许任意停止规则。在接受区域的反转,它们也可用于确定速度集。我们使用一个例子来比较TestSuperMartingales的性能,以计算P值和置信区间致舍诺 - Hoeffding界限和“精确”的p值。该示例是在伯努利试验序列中推断出成功概率的问题。使用对停止规则没有限制的技术,以及针对特定的测试超级特写,我们的研究会计算这一成本。

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