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Forecast accuracy in demand planning: A fast-moving consumer goods case study

机译:预测需求规划准确性:快速消费的消费品案例研究

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摘要

Background: An established South African fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) manufacturer, Company A, sought to address an underperforming supply chain through an attempt to improve demand planning accuracy. A need arose within the organisation for an assessment of the impact of this intervention. A literature gap was also identified, taking into account the limited number of relevant case studies that exist in academic literature.Objectives: The primary objective of this study was to establish whether or not the demand planning interventions of Company A had a positive impact on the performance of the supply chain under investigation. In support of this primary objective, the secondary objectives were to determine and compare the pre- and post-intervention demand planning activities and performance of Company A.Method: A case study research design was used focusing on Company A. The researcher sourced evidence through a secondary quantitative data analysis and primary data collection through interviews with personnel directly involved in the demand planning process at Company A.Results: From mean absolute percentage error calculations, it was found that the focal company’s demand planning process intervention had reduced the errors in demand forecasting for all classifications of stock keeping units analysed.Conclusion: The demand planning interventions applied by Company A had a positive impact on the overall supply chain performance. A positive relationship was found between a well-informed, team-based and technology-assisted approach to demand planning and improved forecasting accuracy within an FMCG company.
机译:背景:南非快速移动消费品(FMCG)制造商,公司,试图通过试图提高需求规划准确性来解决优先的供应链。在组织内需要出现,以评估这种干预的影响。还确定了一个文学差距,考虑到学术文献中存在的有限数量的相关案例研究。目的:本研究的主要目标是建立公司A的需求规划干预对该公司的需求策划供应链的绩效调查。为了支持这一主要目标,次要目标是确定和比较介入后和后期后的需求规划活动和履行A.Method:案例研究设计设计专注于公司A.研究员通过通过对Company A.Results直接参与需求计划流程的人员进行的访谈进行二次定量数据分析和主要数据收集:从平均绝对百分比误差计算,发现焦点公司的需求计划流程干预减少了需求的错误预测股票保持单位的所有分类分析。结论:公司申请的需求规划干预措施对整体供应链绩效产生了积极影响。在一家知情,基于团队和技术辅助的方法之间找到了积极的关系,以便在FMCG公司内部要求规划和改进预测准确性。

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