Responses of Economic Activity to Global Oil Market Shocks: A Comparative Analysis of Major Net Oil-Producing and -Consuming Countries

摘要

We argue that four channels drive oil price shocks during 1986M5–2013M1, namely the oil supply, aggregate demand, oil-specific demand and real exchange rates. Our findings are that oil price shocks driven by oil supply positively affect net oil-consumer countries faster than net oil-producer countries. Oil price shocks driven by aggregate demand are largely country-specific. Oil shocks driven by other demands influence net oil-producers faster than net oil-consumers negatively, and persistently mostly among net oil-producers. Other shocks have large negative effects on the industrial production of all countries, with responses appearing very quickly and persisting for at least a year.