A Modified ABCD Model with Temperature-Dependent Parameters for Cold Regions: Application to Reconstruct the Changing Runoff in the Headwater Catchment of the Golmud River, China

摘要

The runoff changes due to global warming in hydrological basins in the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau (QTP) have received worldwide attention. The headwater catchment of the Golmud River, located in the northern QTP, is the main source of water resources for the Golmud city in an arid region but has been poorly known for the hydroclimatological behaviors. In this study, a widely-used hydrological model, the ABCD model (Thomas, H.A., Washington, DC, USA), is modified by incorporating temperature-dependent hydrological processes and groundwater evapotranspiration in cold regions with a few additional parameters. The new model is used to reconstruct the monthly runoff in the past decades for the headwater catchment of the Golmud River and performs better than other comparable models. As indicated, the annual snowmelt runoff increased with the increasing air temperature and became more concentrated in April than in May. The frozen soil degradation could increase the hydraulic conductivity of soils and lead to a rise in cold season runoff. The groundwater level in the Golmud city was positively correlated to the annual runoff in the headwater catchment of the Golmud River, indicating that an increase of the groundwater level could be triggered by the rising trend in the streamflow of the Golmud River. This study suggests a useful hydrological model for the groundwater management in the Golmud city.