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Central bank reputation, cheap talk and transparency as substitutes for commitment: Experimental evidence

机译:央行声誉,廉价的谈话和透明度作为承诺的替代品:实验证据

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摘要

We implement a repeated version of the Barro-Gordon monetary policy game in the laboratory and ask whether reputation serves as a substitute for commitment, enabling the central bank to achieve the efficient Ramsey equilibrium and avoid the inefficient, time-inconsistent one-shot Nash equilibrium. We find that reputation is a poor substitute for commitment. We then explore whether central bank cheap talk, policy transparency, both cheap talk and policy transparency or economic transparency yield improvements in the direction of the Ramsey equilibrium under the discretionary policy regime. Our findings suggest that these mechanisms have only small or transitory effects on welfare. Surprisingly, the real effects of supply shocks are better mitigated by a commitment regime than by any discretionary policy. Thus, we find that there is no trade-off between flexibility and credibility.
机译:我们在实验室中实施了Barro-Gordon货币政策博弈的重复版本,并询问声誉是否可以代替承诺,从而使中央银行能够实现有效的Ramsey平衡,并避免效率低下,时效不一致的一次性Nash平衡。我们发现声誉无法替代承诺。然后,我们探讨了中央银行的廉价谈话,政策透明性,廉价谈话和政策透明性或经济透明性是否在自由裁量制下向拉姆齐均衡的方向发展。我们的发现表明,这些机制对福利的影响很小或只是短暂的。出乎意料的是,承诺制度比任何自由裁量权政策都能更好地缓解供应冲击的实际影响。因此,我们发现在灵活性和可信度之间没有权衡。

著录项

  • 作者

    John Duffy; Frank Heinemann;

  • 作者单位
  • 年度 2021
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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
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