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AN ADAPTIVE NEURO-FUZZY INFERENCE SYSTEM FOR FORECASTING AUSTRALIA’S DOMESTIC LOW COST CARRIER PASSENGER DEMAND

机译:一种自适应神经模糊推理系统,用于预测澳大利亚国内低成本运营商需求的预测

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摘要

This study has proposed and empirically tested two Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) models for the first time for predicting Australia‘s domestic low cost carriers‘ demand, as measured by enplaned passengers (PAX Model) and revenue passenger kilometres performed (RPKs Model). In the ANFIS, both the learning capabilities of an artificial neural network (ANN) and the reasoning capabilities of fuzzy logic are combined to provide enhanced prediction capabilities, as compared to using a single methodology. Sugeno fuzzy rules were used in the ANFIS structure and the Gaussian membership function and linear membership functions were also developed. The hybrid learning algorithm and the subtractive clustering partition method were used to generate the optimum ANFIS models. Data was normalized in order to increase the model‘s training performance. The results found that the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) for the overall data set of the PAX and RPKs models was 1.52% and 1.17%, respectively. The highest R2-value for the PAX model was 0.9949 and 0.9953 for the RPKs model, demonstrating that the models have high predictive capabilities.
机译:这项研究提出并经验测试了两个自适应神经模糊推理系统(ANFIS)模型,首次预测澳大利亚的国内低成本载体的需求,通过所执行的乘客(PAX模型)和所执行的收入乘客千克(RPKS模型)。在ANFIS中,与使用单一方法相比,组合了人工神经网络(ANN)的学习能力和模糊逻辑的推理能力,以提供增强的预测能力。 Sugeno模糊规则用于ANFIS结构,也开发了高斯成员函数和线性隶属函数。混合学习算法和减法聚类分区方法用于生成最佳ANFIS模型。数据被标准化,以提高模型的培训表现。结果发现,PAX和RPKS模型的整体数据集的平均绝对百分比误差(MAPE)分别为1.52%和1.17%。 PAX型号的最高R2值为RPKS模型为0.9949和0.9953,表明模型具有高预测功能。

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