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Assessing the exposure to floods to estimate the risk of flood-related damage in French Mediterranean basins

机译:评估洪水的暴露估计法国地中海盆地中洪水相关损害的风险

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摘要

The dreadful floods of 1999, 2002 and 2003 in South of France have alerted public opinion on the need for a more efficient and a further generalized national flood-forecasting system. This is why in 2003 Irstea and Meteo-France have implemented a new warning method for flash floods, including on small watersheds, using radar rainfall data in real-time: the AIGA method. This modelling method currently provides real-time information on the magnitude of floods, but doesn’t take into account the elements at risk surrounding the river streams. Its benefit for crisis management is therefore limited as it doesn’t give information on the actual flood risk. To improve the relevance of the AIGA method, this paper shows the benefits of the combination of hydrological warnings with an exposure index, to be able to assess the risk of flood-related damage in real time. To complete this aim, this work presents an innovative and easily reproducible method to evaluate exposure to floods over large areas with simple land-use data. For validation purpose, a damage database has been implemented to test the relevance of both AIGA warnings and exposure levels. A case study on the floods of the 3rd October 2015 is presented to test the effectiveness of the combination of hazard and exposure to assess the risk of flood-related damage. This combination seems to give an accurate overview of the streams at risk, where the most important amount of damage has been observed after the flood.
机译:1999年,1999年,2002年和2003年的可怕洪水在法国南部提醒了公众意见,即需要更有效和进一步的全国洪水预测系统。这就是为什么在2003年IRSTEA和Meteo-France已经实施了一种用于闪蒸洪水的新警告方法,包括在小流域上,使用雷达降雨数据实时:AIGA方法。该建模方法目前提供有关洪水幅度的实时信息,但不考虑河流溪流周围风险的元素。因此,其对危机管理的好处是有限的,因为它没有提供有关实际洪水风险的信息。为了提高AIGA方法的相关性,本文显示了具有曝光指标的水文警告组合的益处,能够在实时评估洪水相关损害的风险。为了完成此目的,这项工作提出了一种创新且易于可重复的方法,可以在具有简单的土地利用数据的大面积上评估暴露的洪水。为了验证目的,已经实施了损坏数据库以测试AIGA警告和曝光率的相关性。提出了对2015年10月3日洪水的案例研究,以测试危害和暴露的结合的有效性,以评估洪水相关损害的风险。这种组合似乎可以准确概述风险的流,在洪水之后已经观察到最重要的损坏。

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