Multi-hazard fragility analysis for fluvial dikes in earthquake- and flood-prone areas

摘要

The paper presents a methodology for the multi-hazard fragility analysis offluvial earthen dikes in earthquake- and flood-prone areas due toliquefaction. The methodology has been applied for the area along the RhineRiver reach and adjacent floodplains between the gauges at Andernach andDüsseldorf. Along this domain, the urban areas are partly protected bydikes, which may be prone to failure during exceptional floods and/orearthquakes. The fragility of the earthen dikes is analysed in terms ofliquefaction potential, characterized by the factor of safety estimated usingthe procedure of Seed and Idriss (1971). Uncertainties in the geometrical andgeotechnical dike parameters are considered in a Monte Carlo simulation(MCS). Failure probability of the earthen structures is presented in the formof a fragility surface as a function of both seismic hazard andhydrologic/hydraulic load.