Research on Dynamic Game Model and Application of China’s Imported Soybean Price in the Context of China-US Economic and Trade Friction

摘要

China’s soybean price fluctuates due to the current economic and trade frictions between China and the United States. Brazil and the United States are regarded as two oligarchs in China’s soybean import market. A dynamic price game model is established, and price elasticity parameters are estimated by using statistical data and Rotterdam model. The stability of Nash equilibrium point is discussed through bifurcation diagram, maximum Lyapunov exponent, evolutionary trajectory, and time series diagram. The influence of price adjustment speed on equilibrium price is analyzed. The numerical simulation of price adjustment speed is carried out, which is compared with the actual situation of imported soybean price before and after the trade friction. The results show that the model constructed in this paper can reflect the changing trend of price and demand and predict the short-term import soybean prices of Brazil and the United States. The forecast accuracy of price fluctuation is high. The results provide model and theoretical reference for price game under trade disputes and provide methodological reference for forecasting the price of imported goods.