Study on Risk Evaluation based on Occupational Exposure Evaluation and Carcinogenic Risk Simulation

摘要

In order to provide the quantitative risk evaluation for 1,3-butadiene-expose, quantitative method using physiologically based pharmacokinetic model and dose-response model is applied to the carcinogenic risk evaluation for 1,3-butadiene-exposed workers. First, the internal dose of inhaled-1,3-butadiene in human beings is simulated by exposure related dose estimating model recommended by USEPA. Second, the internal dose is induced into calculating formula of carcinogenic risk. In order to determine the uncertainty of the cancer risk, Monte Carlo simulation is used to analyze the risk probability distribution. A large chemical enterprise in Tianjin is selected as the case study and carcinogenic risk evaluation for 1,3-butadiene-exposed workers is calculated. The results show that the cancer risk of 1,3-butadiene-exposed workers obviously exceeds 1×10-4 the maximum acceptable risk level. It is necessary to take relevant measures to reduce risk.