Dynamical Downscaling of Future Climate Change Scenarios in Urban Heat Island and Its Neighborhood in a Brazilian Subtropical Area

摘要

According to IPCC reports, a greater frequency, intensity and duration of heat waves in urban areas are expected. This is related to the dynamical evolution of the cities, due the changes of the natural surface modifies the roughness pattern reduce the wind intensity, modify the available humidity in the soil and the radiative properties. These topics characterize the formation of the urban heat island (UHI). A dynamical downscaling of A2 and B1 future scenarios was made for Londrina, a medium-size city of Southern Brazil, using Weather Research Forecasting model, to investigate the impact of this projections on the UHI formation and intensity, as well for rural area, which consistent an important agricultural landscape. For this, an evaluation of the model and the scenarios were done to investigate the current trends. The results shows a tendency of following the worst proposed scenarios (A2), and a drier rural area for the sustainable projection, which has directly influence on the urban heat island intensity and formation, and in the agriculture of the region.