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The dynamics of international capital flows: Results from a dynamic hierarchical factor model

机译:国际资本流动的动态:动态分层系数模型的结果

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摘要

The present paper examines the degree of comovement of gross capital inflows, which is a highly sensitive issue for policy makers. We estimate a dynamic hierarchical factor model that is able to decompose inflows in a sample of 47 economies into (i) a global factor common to all types of flows and all recipient countries, (ii) a factor specific to a given type of capital inflows, (iii) a regional factor and (iv) a country-specific component. We find that the latter explains by far the largest fraction of fluctuations in capital inflows followed by regional factors, which are particularly important for emerging markets' FDI and portfolio inflows as well as bank lending to emerging Europe. The global factor, however, explains only a small share of overall variation. The exposure to global drivers of capital flows, i.e. the global factor and the factor specific to each type of capital inflows, is particularly pronounced for countries with a more developed financial system. A fixed exchange rate regime does not shield countries from the ebb and flow of global capital flow cycles.
机译:本文研究了资本流入总量的联动程度,这对于政策制定者是一个高度敏感的问题。我们估计了一个动态的分层因素模型,该模型能够将47个经济体中的流入分解为(i)所有类型的流量和所有接收国所共有的全球因素,(ii)特定类型的特定资本流入的因素,(iii)地区因素,(iv)国家特定组成部分。我们发现,后者解释了迄今为止最大的资本流入波动,其次是区域因素,这对于新兴市场的外国直接投资和投资流入以及对新兴欧洲的银行贷款尤为重要。但是,全球因素只能解释总体变化的一小部分。对于金融体系更加发达的国家而言,资本流动的全球驱动因素敞口,即全球因素和每种类型的资本流入所特有的因素,尤其明显。固定汇率制度并不能使各国免受全球资本流动周期的波动的影响。

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